The New York Times
A 10-kiloton nuclear bomb (a pipsqueak in weapons terms) is
smuggled into Manhattan and explodes at Grand Central. Some
500,000 people are killed, and the U.S. suffers $1 trillion
in direct economic damage.
That scenario, cited in a report last year from the John F.
Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, could be a glimpse
of our future. We urgently need to control nuclear
materials to forestall that threat, but in this war on
proliferation, we're now slipping backward. President Bush
(after ignoring the issue before 9/11) now forcefully says
the right things - but still doesn't do enough.
"We're losing the war on proliferation," Andrew F.
Krepinevich Jr., a military expert and executive director
of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, says
bluntly.
Until recently, nuclear trends looked encouraging.
President Kennedy and others in the early 1960's expected
dozens of countries to develop atomic weapons quickly, but
in fact controls largely worked. Even now, only eight
nations definitely possess nuclear weapons.
And there's more good news. While I believe that the
invasion of Iraq was a mistake, at least Saddam Hussein
won't be making warheads soon. Likewise, partly thanks to
Mr. Bush's saber-rattling, Libya is abandoning its weapons
program.
But all in all, the risks of a nuclear 9/11 are increasing.
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if nuclear weapons are used
over the next 15 or 20 years," said Bruce Blair, president
of the Center for Defense Information, "first and foremost
by a terrorist group that gets its hands on a Russian
nuclear weapon or a Pakistani nuclear weapon."
One of our biggest setbacks is in North Korea. Thanks to
the ineptitude of hard-liners in Mr. Bush's administration,
and their refusal to engage in meaningful negotiations,
North Korea is going all-out to make warheads. It may have
just made six new nuclear weapons. Then there's Iran, which
has sought nuclear weapons since the days of the shah, and
whose nuclear program seems to have public support. "I'm
not sure there is a way to get an Iranian government to
give it up," a senior American official said.
Finally, there's the real rogue nation of proliferation,
Pakistan. We know that Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Islamist
father of Pakistan's bomb, peddled materials to Libya and
North Korea, and we don't know who else.
"It may be that A. Q. Khan & Associates already have passed
bomb-grade nuclear fuel to the Qaeda, and we are in for the
worst," warns Paul Leventhal, founding president of the
Nuclear Control Institute.
It's mystifying that the administration hasn't leaned on
Pakistan to make Dr. Khan available for interrogation to
ensure that his network is entirely closed. Several experts
on Pakistan told me they believe that the administration
has been so restrained because its top priority isn't
combating nuclear proliferation - it's getting President
Pervez Musharraf's help in arresting Osama bin Laden before
the November election.
Another puzzle is why an administration that spends
hundreds of billions of dollars in Iraq doesn't try harder
to secure uranium and plutonium in Russia and elsewhere.
The bipartisan program to secure weapons of mass
destruction is starved for funds - but Mr. Bush is
proposing a $41 million cut in "cooperative threat
reduction" with Russia.
"We're at this crucial point," warns Joseph Cirincione of
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "And how we
handle these situations in the next couple of years will
tell us whether the nuclear threat shrinks or explodes.
Perhaps literally."
The steps that are needed, like negotiating seriously with
North Korea and securing sites in Russia, aren't as
dramatic as bombing Baghdad. But unless we act more
aggressively, we will get a wake-up call from a nuclear
explosion or, more likely, a "dirty bomb" that uses
radioactive materials routinely lying around hospitals and
factories. To clarify the stakes, here's a scenario from
the Federation of American Scientists for a modest
terrorist incident:
A stick of cobalt, an inch thick and a foot long, is taken
from among hundreds of such sticks at a food irradiation
plant. It is blown up with just 10 pounds of explosives in
a "dirty bomb" at the lower tip of Manhattan, with a
one-mile-per-hour breeze blowing. Some 1,000 square
kilometers in three states is contaminated, and some areas
of New York City become uninhabitable for decades.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/10/opinion/10KRIS.html?ex=1080203251&ei=1&en=34c8a3d84ffec196